Fortis Capital Measured insight for UK capital markets

Fortis Capital

Measured insight for UK capital markets

Latest Articles

Regulated, Not Risk-Free: The Cost-of-Capital Gap in UK Water Equity
Regulation & Policy

Regulated, Not Risk-Free: The Cost-of-Capital Gap in UK Water Equity

UK water equity has often been framed as a bond-like holding: essential service, regulated revenue and an indexed asset base. That framing understates the equity residual, particularly when allowed returns and actual financing costs diverge. In 2026, the persistent discount to regulated asset value is better read as a repricing of regulatory credibility than as an automatic valuation opportunity.
The Exit Is Part of the Yield: A UK Retail Bond Checklist
Market Strategy

The Exit Is Part of the Yield: A UK Retail Bond Checklist

Headline coupons on listed corporate bonds can look generous beside cash and gilts, but the return an investor actually receives depends on the price paid, the terms attached and the ability to sell. This checklist separates sticker yield from realised income for UK retail portfolios.
A Discount Without a Diagnosis: UK Investment Trusts and the Limits of Buybacks
Market Strategy

A Discount Without a Diagnosis: UK Investment Trusts and the Limits of Buybacks

Wide investment trust discounts have become a familiar feature of the UK market, yet board buybacks have not reliably closed them. The useful question for 2026 is not whether a discount exists, but what is causing it — and whether the board’s response addresses that cause or merely the symptom.
The Clock You Didn't Underwrite: Subscription Lines and UK Private Equity Returns
Market Strategy

The Clock You Didn't Underwrite: Subscription Lines and UK Private Equity Returns

Capital-call facilities are a legitimate treasury tool, but they can also move the clock on reported IRRs. For UK limited partners comparing 2026 fund returns, the task is to separate cash-management convenience from performance presentation.
The Curve's Honest Price: Reading UK Gilt Supply Without Mistaking Technicals for Fiscal Risk
Market Strategy

The Curve's Honest Price: Reading UK Gilt Supply Without Mistaking Technicals for Fiscal Risk

UK gilt supply is heavy in 2026, but not every curve move is a verdict on fiscal credibility. Separating technical supply effects from genuine fiscal-risk pricing matters for credit spreads, equity discount rates and corporate funding decisions.
The Honest Spread: Measuring Real Compensation in Sterling New Issues
Market Strategy

The Honest Spread: Measuring Real Compensation in Sterling New Issues

New-issue concessions in sterling credit are often quoted as if they were a single, objective number. They are not. Separating genuine investor compensation from order-book ceremony requires a disciplined look at fair value, allocation behaviour and the secondary market's first thirty days.
Beyond the Default Line: Recovery Risk and the UK Private Credit Cycle
Market Strategy

Beyond the Default Line: Recovery Risk and the UK Private Credit Cycle

Default rates are the visible part of the UK private credit cycle. Recovery rates, documentation and creditor dynamics are where the real dispersion sits. A framework for assessing recovery risk through 2026–27.
Earned, Not Borrowed: A Cash-First Test for UK Corporate Resilience
Market Strategy

Earned, Not Borrowed: A Cash-First Test for UK Corporate Resilience

UK investors are moving beyond headline leverage as the primary measure of corporate strength. This article sets out a practical cash-first framework—covering cash conversion, covenant headroom and refinancing risk—for distinguishing durable balance sheets from those flattered by a favourable point in the cycle.
Mechanical Demand, Limited Horizon: Reading the FTSE Mid-Cap Rebalance
Market Strategy

Mechanical Demand, Limited Horizon: Reading the FTSE Mid-Cap Rebalance

Index inclusion is often read as a verdict on a UK mid-cap's prospects. The evidence is narrower: FTSE Russell reviews create a predictable window of mechanical demand, but durable liquidity and durable valuation are different things. Issuers and active managers should price the former without mistaking it for the latter.
Patient Capital, Sharper Clocks: Family Offices in the UK Mid-Market
Market Strategy

Patient Capital, Sharper Clocks: Family Offices in the UK Mid-Market

Family offices and permanent capital vehicles are no longer fringe bidders in UK mid-market M&A. They are winning mandates on certainty, speed and governance fit — and changing how founders think about exit. This article maps the shift and its implications for 2026.
Thin Files, Wider Spreads: The Unbundling Hangover in UK Small-Caps
Regulation & Policy

Thin Files, Wider Spreads: The Unbundling Hangover in UK Small-Caps

Unbundling was meant to sharpen research economics. In the UK small-cap market it has too often thinned the information base, widened spreads and raised the cost of price discovery. This article examines the coverage gap and the practical routes to closing it in 2026.
Before the Letter Arrives: A Capital Allocation Doctrine for UK Boards in an Activist Year
Regulation & Policy

Before the Letter Arrives: A Capital Allocation Doctrine for UK Boards in an Activist Year

Public campaigns are rarely the start of the argument about a company's capital; they are the point at which it becomes visible. Boards that can point to a pre-agreed, evidence-led doctrine across buybacks, dividends and reinvestment are better placed to defend decisions and to know when to hold a position.
Certainty, Priced: Continuation Vehicles and the UK Mid-Market Exit in 2026
Market Strategy

Certainty, Priced: Continuation Vehicles and the UK Mid-Market Exit in 2026

GP-led continuation vehicles have moved from the margins to the mainstream of UK mid-market liquidity, and founders are increasingly being asked to weigh them against trade sales and listings. The terms on which certainty is offered deserve as much scrutiny as the headline price.
The Cover Test: UK Equity Income When Yield Optics Flatter
Market Strategy

The Cover Test: UK Equity Income When Yield Optics Flatter

In a rate regime that keeps rewriting expectations, headline yield is an increasingly poor guide to durable UK equity income. This strategy piece argues that dividend cover, cash conversion and payout discipline should become the primary sensitivity measures for income investors seeking to separate genuine distributions from yield traps.
Maturity, Not Mythology: A UK Mid-Market Refinancing Map Through 2027
Regulation & Policy

Maturity, Not Mythology: A UK Mid-Market Refinancing Map Through 2027

The UK mid-market refinancing story is less a single cliff edge than a corridor of maturity dates, covenant tests and lender negotiations stretching into 2027. This analysis maps the pressure points by sector and explains why lender composition, covenant resets and rescue capital structures deserve as much attention as the maturity tower itself.
Surplus, Not Licence: How UK Pension Schemes Are Repricing Risk in 2026
Market Strategy

Surplus, Not Licence: How UK Pension Schemes Are Repricing Risk in 2026

Rising defined-benefit surpluses have turned UK pension schemes from deficit managers into allocators once more. But a funding level above 100 per cent is an accounting position, not an investment mandate — and the way schemes deploy it will shape demand across gilts, credit and insurance capacity for years.
The Fine Print Pays: A Covenant Checklist for UK Mid-Market Equity Investors
Regulation & Policy

The Fine Print Pays: A Covenant Checklist for UK Mid-Market Equity Investors

Headline leverage multiples describe what was paid, not what protection exists. In UK mid-market lending, the loan documentation decides how much of the equity thesis a company can execute before control passes — and where value quietly leaks away before earnings ever disappoint.
The Capital Question: Reading UK Bank Strength Beyond the CET1 Headline
Regulation & Policy

The Capital Question: Reading UK Bank Strength Beyond the CET1 Headline

UK bank capital ratios remain robust by headline measures, but resilience is not a single number. This field guide separates accounting capital from genuine loss-absorbing capacity and sets out what investors should check in Pillar 3 disclosures during 2026.
Cash Is a Signal, Not a Verdict: UK Fund Liquidity in 2026
Market Strategy

Cash Is a Signal, Not a Verdict: UK Fund Liquidity in 2026

Elevated cash balances in UK equity and credit funds are often read as a market call. They are more usefully understood as a mix of tactical positioning, mandate requirements and operational plumbing. This measured framework helps investors separate the three.
Beyond the Press Release: What the Revised Listing Regime Actually Changes for UK Equity Capital
Regulation & Policy

Beyond the Press Release: What the Revised Listing Regime Actually Changes for UK Equity Capital

The overhaul of the UK listing rulebook has generated a great deal of commentary and rather less evidence. This analysis separates the structural change from the noise, and asks what the revised regime genuinely does for capital formation in London — and where the binding constraints still sit.